$220.53 BCH Bitcoin Cash price chart - CoinCheckup

Rebasing, new money, old money, the stable value, and value fluctuations.

Hello all.
I have seen several people comparing ampleforth to bitconnect, so here is the simplified formula: (Oracle Price – Target Price) / 10 supply change every 24 hours.
Now so long as the price fluctuations are under this amount, we never run the risk of dropping into negative territory. Now, look at the chart. What are our fluctuations?
The biggest fluctuation was the 13 july 2020, from 3.46 to 1.86. Now, is this due only to the rebase? No. If you look up on the days before that, we had a massive run up. This looks like a normal market pattern cycle that got burst.
But did hodlers lose? No. The marketcap just keeps going up. So, what could cause the price to dip below $1? Well, if we reached $1, and the marketcap stagnated, then a whale *COULD* crash the market. However, there are several things to consider here. First, when we reach a stagnated market value, ampleforth will have taken a strong competitive edge against tether and usdc. That means its volume will be absolutely massive. Second, it requires more money to crash an asset than it requires to jack an asset's prices up.
Psychology lesson. Most people are bad traders because they treat risk and reward differently. They hold losing positions hoping the losing position will come back, and they hesitate to take winning positions if there is a chance of loss.
This risk adverse mentality has an application here. Also, the lower number of say .90 is a numerically lower number than say 1.15.
And trading lesson... the spot price of an asset is determined by active traders. Not by actual hodlers. Traders are necessarily reactionary. We cannot see the future. And when the price fluctuates, non market participants tend to become active market participants. This is why small price moves can spark feagreed runs.
At ampleforth's target price of $1, it is going to be difficult for any one trader to crash the market, and we will NOT see price drops to .5 as a normal occurrence. If we do, there is an arbitrage that traders like me WILL do if it happens. Basically since we know that below $1 the rebase is a negative event, we will do the opposite of current actions with trading. The current trading strategy that eliminates risk while at the same time maximizes returns is to jump in with tether 5 minutes before rebase, and jump out and crash the market with the new 10% supply. Under $1, the strategy would be to buy and jump in. Right before rebase, traders sell, and then buy back in after rebase.
People who are saying ampleforth is a bad investment are probably wrong. There are reasons it won't crash sub $1 when it has lots of users, and there are ways the market can remedy the situation.
Now.. the ampleforth rich list IS disturbing. Just like satoshi nakamoto holding 10% of bitcoin is disturbing. However, they are a respectable crypto company, and they have plans for at least coinbase and binance, and I do not see them flash dumping on the market. That isn't to say they might sell. I am saying that if they do sell, they will do it in a nice respectful manner that does not crash the market, and doesn't cause lots of slippage for them.
submitted by Ghostcarapace3 to AmpleforthCrypto [link] [comments]

Bittrex Review: One of the First Crypto Exchanges| Final Part

Bittrex Review: One of the First Crypto Exchanges| Final Part

4. Transaction Fees

Transferring funds across the blockchain and withdrawing them from Bittrex costs a fee for customers, with the rate unique for every coin.
Bittrex Global charges no commission for deposits. Please keep in mind that some tokens or cash may be required to perform a transaction by a crypto coin or token’s community. Bittrex crypto exchange can’t keep away from it.
Every token or coin has a blockchain transaction fee that is built in it, and the Bittrex fee is a small amount to cover this charge. You can view the fee percentage for every coin or token by clicking Withdrawal near to the coin. There you will see a transaction fee you will be charged for withdrawing a specific coin or token.
In the example below, the withdrawal fee amounts to 1 USDT
https://preview.redd.it/209uz2p64zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9ee9355c4d75d41931a3073b8a230bd1ffddaf08
The transaction fee for Bitcoin came to 0.00050000 BTC
https://preview.redd.it/vh7zbe884zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6293650b46a7e0ba661478bd2467471b8b213f9

5. Trading Fees

The fee schedule below provides the applicable rate based on the account's 30-Day Volume and if the order is a maker or taker.
Bittrex Global Fee30 Day Volume (USD)MakerTaker$0k - $50k0.2%0.2%$50k - $1M0.12%0.18%$1M - $10M0.05%0.15%$10M - $60M0.02%0.1%$60M+0%0.08%>$100MContact TAM representative
Trading expenses are incurred when an order is prepared by means of the Bittrex worldwide matching engine. While an order is being executed, the purchaser and the vendor are charged a rate primarily based on the order’s amount. The fee charged by Bittrex exchange is calculated by the formula amount * buy rate * fee. There aren't any charges for placing an order which is not being executed so far. Any portion of an unfinished order will be refunded completely upon order cancelation.
Prices vary depending on the currency pair, monthly trade volume, and whether the order is a maker or taker. Bittrex reserves the right to alternate fee quotes at any time, including offering various discounts and incentive packages.

Monthly Volume

Your buying and selling volume affects the fee you pay for every order. Our expenses are built to encourage customers who ensure liquidity in the Bittrex crypto exchange markets. Your buying and selling charges are reduced according to your trade volume for the last 30 years in dollars.
Bittrex calculates the 30-day value every day, updating every account's volume calculation and buying and selling charge between of 12:30 AM UTC and 01:30 AM UTC every day.
You can check your monthly trade volume by logging in and opening Account > My Activity.
https://preview.redd.it/n1djh2ob4zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2eebb9c9ac63de207c4dd2e49bc45aeb53a8dec8

6. Withdrawing Funds

Withdrawing any type of funds is likewise simple. You can profit by buying and selling Bitcoin, Ether, or any other cryptocurrency.
You determine the crypto address—to which the amount will be credited—and the transaction amount. The withdrawal fee will be automatically calculated and shown right away.
After confirming the transaction, the finances will be sent to the specified addresses and all that you need to do is to wait for the community to confirm the transaction.
If the 2FA is enabled, then the user receives a special code (via SMS or application) to confirm the withdrawal.

7. How to Trade on Bittrex Global

Currency selling and buying transactions are performed using the Sell and Buy buttons, accordingly.
To begin with, the dealer selects a currency pair and sees a graph of the rate dynamics and different values for the pair.
Below the chart, there is a section with orders where the user can buy or sell a virtual asset.
To create an order, you just need to specify the order type, price, and quantity. And do not forget about the 0.25% trade fee whatever the quantity.
For optimum profit, stay with liquid assets as they can be quickly sold at a near-market rate effective at the time of the transaction. Bittrex offers no referral program; so buying and selling crypto is the easiest way to earn.
https://preview.redd.it/hopm6fih4zh51.jpg?width=1302&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68c0aaae86f64c3e6b9d351c3df2a9c331f94038

Order Types

Bittrex helps you alternate Limit and Stop-Limit orders.
A limit order or a simple limit order is performed when the asset fee reaches—or even exceeds—the price the trader seeks. To execute such an order, it is required that there's a counter market order on the platform that has the identical fee as the limit order.

Differences between Limit Order and Stop Limit Order

A stop limit order is a mixture of a stop limit order and a limit order. In such an application, charges are indicated—a stop charge and the limit.

Stop Limit Order Purpose

https://preview.redd.it/hlxvy9ti4zh51.jpg?width=1141&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=064a77459a4dcb4555a885cbc56629aae10fc38b

Trade Terminal

Let’s discuss how you could trade conveniently with our service.
The key features include a user-friendly interface and precise currency pair statistics (timeframe graphs, network data, trade volumes, and so forth).
The platform’s top-notch advantage is handy, easy-to-analyze, customizable charts. There is also a column for quick switching between currency pairs and an order panel beneath the fee chart. Such an all-encompassing visual solution helps compare orders efficiently and in one place.
You can use the terminal in a day or night mode; when in the night mode, the icon in the upper-right corner changes and notice the Bittrex trading terminal in night mode is displayed. The main menu consists of 4 sections: Markets, Orders, Wallets, Settings.
Markets are the trade section. Bittrex allows handling over 270 currency pairs.
Orders. To see all open orders, go to OrdersOpen.
To see completed orders, go to OrdersCompleted.
Wallets. The Wallets tab displays many wallets for all cryptocurrencies supported by the exchange and the current balance of each of them.
After refilling the balance or creating a buy or sale order, you will see all actions in the section. Bittrex allows creating a separate wallet for every coin. Additionally, you can see how the coin price has changed, in terms of percentage, throughout the day.
Here’s what you can also do with your wallets:
  • Hide zero balances: hide currencies with zero balance
  • Green and red arrows: replenish balance/withdraw funds
  • Find: search for a cryptocurrency
The Settings section helps manage your account, verification, 2FA, password modification, API connection, and many more.

How to Sell

The process of selling crypto assets follows the same algorithm. The only difference is that after choosing the exchange direction, you need to initiate a Sell order. All the rest is similar: you select the order type, specify the quantity and price, and click Sell *Currency Name* (Sell Bitcoin in our case).
If you scroll the screen, the entire history of trades and orders will be displayed below.

LONG and SHORT

You can make a long deal or a short deal. Your choice depends on whether you expect an asset to fall or rise in price.
Long positions are a classic trading method. It concerns purchasing an asset to profit when its value increases. Long positions are carried out through any brokers and do not require a margin account. In this case, the trader’s account must have enough funds to cover the transaction.
Losses in a long position are considered to be limited; no matter when the trade starts, the price will not fall below zero with all possible errors. Short positions, in contrast, are used to profit from a falling market. A trader buys a financial instrument from a broker and sells it. After the price reaches the target level, the trader buys back the assets or buys them to pay off the initial debt to the broker.
A short position yields profit if the price falls, and it is considered unprofitable the price matches the asset value. Performing a short order requires a margin account as a trader borrows valuable assets from a broker to complete a transaction. Long transactions help gain from market growth; short from a market decline.

Trade via API

Bittrex also supports algorithmic trading through extensive APIs (application programming interface), which allows you to automate the trading process using third-party services.
To create an API key, the user must enable the two-factor authentication 2FA, verify their account, and log in to the site within 3 minutes.
If all the requirements of the system are fulfilled, you can proceed to generate the API key. Log in to your Bittrex account, click Settings. Find API Keys. Click Add new key (Create a new key).
Toggle on / off settings for READ INFO, TRADE, or WITHDRAW, depending on what functionality you want to use for our API key.
Click Save and enter the 2FA code from the authenticator → Confirm.
The secret key will be displayed only once and will disappear after the page is refreshed. Make sure you saved it!
To delete an API key, click X in the right corner for the key that you want to delete, then click Save, enter the 2FA code from the authenticator and click Confirm.

Bittrex Bot, a Trader’s Assistant

Robotized programs that appeared sometimes after the appearance of cryptocurrency exchanges save users from monotonous work and allow automating the trading process.
Bots for trading digital money work like all the other bots: they perform mechanical trading according to the preset parameters.
Currently, one of Bittrex’s most popular trading bots is Bittrex Flash Crash Buyer Bot that helps traders profit from altcoin volatility without missing the right moment.
The program monitors all the market changes in the market every second; also, it even can place an order in advance. The Bittrex bot can handle a stop loss—to sell a certain amount of currency when the rate changes in a favorable direction and reaches a certain level.

8. Secure Platform

Bittrex Global employs the most reliable and effective security technologies available. There are many cases of theft, fraud. It is no coincidence that the currency is compared to the Wild West, especially if we compare the 1800s when cowboys rushed to the West Coast of America to earn and start something new in a place that had no rules.
Cryptocurrency is still wild. One can earn and lose money fast. But Bittrex has a substantial security policy thanks to the team’s huge experience in security and development for companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Qualys, and Blackberry.
The system employs an elastic, multi-stage holding strategy to ensure that the majority of funds are kept in cold storage for extra safety.
Bittrex Global also enables the two-factor authentication for all users and provides a host of additional security features to provide multiple layers of protection.
Bittrex cold wallet: https://bitinfocharts.com/en/bitcoin/address/385cR5DM96n1HvBDMzLHPYcw89fZAXULJP

How to Pass IP Verification

To ensure higher security of your Bittrex Global account, the system requires all users to approve each new IP address through an email confirmation. This IP verification procedure is required every time you attempt to log in from a new IP Address.
Confirming your IP address.
https://preview.redd.it/rnl730z75zh51.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd13fba0a844ab01cadc40003f5ea5de7439cbf9
The new IP address must be confirmed from the device that you are using to access Bittrex Global. This means that you must follow the CLICK HERE TO LOGIN link in an email on the device that you want to use to access your account.
https://preview.redd.it/tq9eje795zh51.jpg?width=607&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=160b2ebfd1b9e0a287d4d2b99017dd45518ef2f7
To ensure even more security, Bittrex Global supports whitelisting of IP addresses and Crypto addresses. These two features can help protect the account in the event of credentials or API key loss.

How to Add IP Address to Whitelist

By setting one or more whitelisted addresses, you are telling Bittrex Global to only authorize trades or withdrawals from those IPs. This concerns both the global.bittrex.com web interface and API-based trades or withdrawals. To do this, click IP Whitelist in Site Settings.
https://preview.redd.it/m2klahja5zh51.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7cfb941ecb5284973baed1a2b0301459e36a0ab6

How to Add Crypto Address to Whitelist

By setting a withdrawal address, you are telling Bittrex Global to authorize withdrawals only to that address.
This concerns both the global.bittrex.com web interface and API based withdrawals.
Note that when opting into this feature, you need to specify a withdrawal address would like to withdraw funds from for every currency. To do this, click Withdrawal Whitelist in the Site Settings section. The example below shows a BTC address.
https://preview.redd.it/yrror8zd5zh51.jpg?width=974&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=179dd7da9f6e59d3fca628cbfcd2c3962562f911

Afterword

Bittrex Global is a reliable and advanced platform for trading digital assets with a respected reputation, long history, and active market presence and development nowadays. The exchange is eligible to be used globally, including the US and its territories.
The legal component of Bittrex Global is one of the most legitimate among numerous crypto-asset exchanges.
The Bittrex team has had great ambitions and managed to deliver promises and more. The exchange staff comprises forward-thinking and exceptional individuals whose success is recognized in the traditional business and blockchain sector.
Bittrex's purpose is to be the driving force in the blockchain revolution, expanding the application, importance, and accessibility of this game-changing technology worldwide.
The exchange fosters new and innovative blockchain and related projects that could potentially change the way money and assets are managed globally.
Alongside innovation, safety will always be the main priority of the company. The platform utilizes the most reliable and effective practices and available technologies to protect user accounts. Bittrex customers have always primarily been those who appreciate the highest degree of security.
Because of the way the Bittrex trading platform is designed, it can easily scale to always provide instant order execution for any number of new customers.
Bittrex supports algorithmic trading and empowers its customers with extensive APIs for more automated and profitable trading.
One of the common features which is not available on the exchange is margin trading. No leverage used however adds up to the exchange's stability and prevents fast money seekers and risky traders from entering the exchange.
Bittrex is a force of the blockchain revolution and an important entity of the emerging sector.
The full version
First part
Second part
submitted by mPrestige to revain_org [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Headed Towards Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Author: CoinLive News Team Jun 18, 2018 at 12:47
(Click the link to visualize the article from the original source)
There are many venues one can venture when it comes to analyzing the state of affairs in a particular market. However, from a psychological perspective, it is human nature to see repetitive patterns play out over and over. In this article, we want to bring to the readers' attention the psychology behind a market cycle, how it tends to trick one's emotions, and what stage the crypto space might be at.

Understanding the Psychology of a Market Cycle

Credit goes to Karen Bennett, writer at cheatsheet.com, whose chart (below) on the psychology of a market cycle has become an absolute classic to explain the different emotional phases of any volatile market. The chart illustrates the type of feelings and sentiment traders and investors alike experience as the price fluctuates. These inevitable human emotions, coupled with market fundamentals, help to explain the price dynamics and what we should expect based on the type of emotional phase we project to be in.
In this article, we will attempt to draw some parallels between the chart of Bitcoin and the psychological cycles investors go through as described by Karen Bennett. Let's, first of all, explore the chart below and extract a few insights out of it. It is of cardinal importance to always be reminded that markets go through periods of expansion and contraction, which describes the times where the market alternates between trending in a defined direction and moving sideways. This phenomenon can be extrapolated to multiple facets of our lives (thermal, matter, solid, liquids...).
It is during the periods of most contraction that the majority of the market crowd will leave by selling their holding (weak-handed players) to those that are interested in buying to accumulate at what is perceived as attractive prices. The contraction of the market partly occurs due to the compressive effect of those strong-handed players absorbing selling orders.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1000/content_psychology_cycles.png)

Applying Market Cycle Psychology to Bitcoin & Market Cap

By comparing the psychology of market moves and its emotions to the rollercoaster seen in Bitcoin ever since its peak from its irrationally exuberant rally from Dec-Jan, we have taken the initiative to draw what we believe could be some common parallels that may provide some extra insights about the potential market phase we might be at, as perceived by market participants. In our opinion, a period of depression, which leads up to disbelief might be the most accurate terrain we find ourselves at this moment in time, especially after the harsh sell-off resumption seen ever since mid-May.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1003/content_btc01.png)
We can best define this period as the one that sees a consistent loss of hope, with investors no longer expecting a significant upward correction in the near future that may get them out of the deep hole they find themselves in. A significant portion of market participants give up on the idea that their capital has been wisely invested. We seem to have entered a phase where investors aim to save whatever funds left in desperation even if they realize that cutting the losses for whatever capital is left will still represent a major setback.
This phase leads to a potential paradigm shift in their belief about the underlying fundamentals that they first considered so disruptive, or they simply come to the realization that the only reason they invested was out of an adrenaline-led hype vs a proper understanding of the technology and its revolutionary consequences to advance society as we know it. This loss in the overall interest keeps prices at depressed levels, which tends to coincide, at times, with the lowest point in the current cycle.
Stable prices in a compressed range tend to follow, in what might be an arduous and torturous stage lasting quite some time before a new bullish trend re-emerges. Note how the ATR has been consistently compressing since the peak, which suggests we are gradually heading towards the compression phase and point of maximum financial opportunity.

Keep in Mind Return to the 'Mean'

Another critical component to understand is the term "return to the mean". Given that the price of Bitcoin is now way below the most widely followed moving averages (5, 100, 200-Daily Moving Average), one could apply the usefulness of drawing trending lines to estimate where the fair value or mean may be located. Note, different interpretations (lines drawn) should be considered.
By connecting the most number of highs /lows from various price sequences, we come up with at least 3 different trendlines that serve as an estimate to calculate where the market may perceive the mean or fair value of Bitcoin. No one can really tell whether the first green box is the one the market is paying most attention to (follow volumes for valuable tips). However, this exercise helps us determine, from a market cycle/mean reversion standpoint, that the range between $6.5k and $3k appears to be an area where a period of accumulation (perception of value) will most likely occur.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1005/content_btc02.png)
Mean reversion is extremely critical. Over a short span, the markets can behave in such an erratic manner, and anything can happen, however, when we scan the market conditions as part of an extended period of time, which may go from months to years - that's when statistics and certain patterns tend to more accurately play out, with 2 plus 2 more often than not equal 4. Performance that is well above average eventually reverts back to an equilibrium point as it no longer can defy gravity, while performance that is well below average has a tendency to improve.
At CoinLive we are always open for interpretations that can be logically explained and have a mathematical backing. We have been long endorsing the approach taken by the user of BitcoinTalk that goes by the name Trolololo and its logarithmic non-linear mean regression chart. According to the chart below, we might be closer to the upper edge of the $6.5k-$3k range, although as usual, a caveat applies. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has had a tendency to spend significant periods of time in an undervalued area below the mean reversion (red line).
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1006/content_btc03.png)
The formula%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) that utilizes can also be applied to the total crypto market capitalization (currently at $270b), which can be found below:
![103.23720 log((weeks since Friday, January 9, 2009/week) - 8.81809)](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP131ei58i8420g3f1eh00005h2a3221h21b15i6?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37) = ![1.78×1011](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP171ei58i8420g3f1eh00002icb526a8ff605ie?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37)
Twitter user @TommyWorldPower, a crypto influencer and Creator of @energicrypto, notes: "My observations of the market is that current fair value of market: $175B. Current growth rate ~150%/yr (decaying at 20%/yr, so next year would be ~120% growth). Thus, though we are overvalued now, we would reach fair market value in about 8 months at current valuation. I'm hodling."

What Can We Learn from the Analysis?

Some of the main takeaways from this analysis include:
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

BitMax.io & Lambda Joint AMA

BitMax.io & Lambda Joint AMA
George Cao :Let’s welcome lambda team . Xiaoyang and Lucy
Lambda: Hello friends from BitMax ~~ I am Lucy Wang, Co-founder and CMO of Lambda. I am very happy to e-meet with you here and thx for George's invitation. I on behalf of Lambda wish all of you a merry Christmas and prosperous new year in 2019
George Cao: Great. I am a bit surprised to see a big volume day yesterday Christmas. Seems our users didn’t take a break even on holidays :)
Lambda: I'd like to take this opportunity to introduce myself first, I have over 14 years of progressive career development with global leading enterprise software / service organizations as well as VC-backed start-up ventures, including HP, Oracle, and SAP. Before Lambda I was CMO/GM at two enterprise SaaS start ups in China backed by top VCs.
And my partner Mr. He Xiaoyang, who is the founder of Lambda, he is a well-known expert in infrastructure and open source software in China. Prior to Lambda, he was the co-founder of OneAPM, a fast-growing infrastructure software focusing on ITOM (IT operation management) in China. OneAPM is known as the “New Relic or AppDynamics of China” and the company has received strong VC backing from Matrix Partners, Chengwei Capital, and Qiming Venture. Prior to his entrepreneur experiences, Mr. HE worked at BEA as a R&D software engineer. In addition, Mr. HE is also a blogger with strong following in China and some of his articles have been published by major media such as Forbes China, 36Kr, Sina, etc.
Lambda idea was born at the end of year 2017 and the product development started from the beginning of 2018. Now let me talk about Lambda idea and what we do
Lambda, is the leading decentralized infrastructure project providing secure, reliable, and infinitely scalable decentralized storage network that enables data storage, data integrity check, security verification, and marketplace for storage-related services on the Lambda Chain Consensus Network.
In recent years, there have been frequent data leakage problems in major Internet platforms at home and abroad, and even business giants such as Facebook and Marriott have not been spared. Returning the value of data to data owners is an inevitable trend in line with human pursuit of freedom. The block-chain technology with P2P features provides an opportunity for this, and this area will be highly valued by the industry in the next few years. Lambda is the only provider of block-chain storage infrastructure projects in China. It is sometimes referred as “File-coin of China”or “File-coin 2.0”.our vision is to return the value of data to the data owner, with this vision in mind, our mission is to promote the decentralization of the Internet, with the goal of creating a storage infrastructure for the next generation of block-chain.
After the Lambda project launch in early 2018, it has received strong support by well-known strategic and financial investors including Bitmain, Viking Capital, FBG Capital, Bluehills, Zhen Fund, FunCity Capital, Ceyuan Digital Fund, BlockVC, INBlockChain, DATA Foundation, Bitcoin World, Reflextion Capital, etc. To date, Lambda has received investment funding in excess of $10M.

https://preview.redd.it/ynaos7rps2721.png?width=1267&format=png&auto=webp&s=77360b7cdf06c288e8c25675f94f5fb9d3d02137
n all the existing decentralized storage projects that are aiming to give a solution to this problem worldwide, Lambda is the first ever to announce its LPDP ( Lambda Provable Data Possession )
George Cao: I see we share several investors in common, So 2019 q1-q2 will be a big milestone for lambda
Lambda: Provable Data Possession (PDP) and Proofs of Retrievability (POR) are critical to efficient decentralized data storage and its implementation, which is the essential difference between centralized network projects and real decentralized storage. Prior to Inter-planetary
File System (IPFS), Lambda launched its minimum viable product (MVP) of core functions in the third quarter of 2018, and has been continuously upgrading and optimizing this in block-chains in a multi-role environment.
File-coin is our main competitor, here is a chart shows the progress comparison FYI

https://preview.redd.it/ewmyh9tqs2721.png?width=1267&format=png&auto=webp&s=cddc52a6d613196f6c0cbf870da42a5b82a8aaa6
For those who have interest to know more about Lambda's technical innovations, they can be find in our keep updating FAQ document posted on Medium, and I copied her FYI
1.Innovatively designed the Validator role which provides verification service for storage proof and the Validator replaces storage miner as the full-time storage proof result verifier, this greatly improves the performance of the storage and retrieval system.
2.In response to the limitations of the PDP algorithm, Lambda innovatively created a consensus network on the block-chain and used the validators role to replace the "TPA" in the PDP algorithm.
3.Innovatively modified the PDP algorithm from synchronous to asynchronous communication, which greatly reduces the communication traffic for Challenge in the system. Use of chain data as a random seed for storage miners to issue Challenge themselves addresses the randomness of TPA challenges.
4.Innovatively upgraded the PDP algorithm from periodic verification to a verification set generated by the miners to submit the verification result at one time, and fully realize the Proof-Of-Space-Time verification.
on top of all the technical, Lambda creates a consensus network where data can be stored, storage space can be rented on the basis of a marketplace built on block-chain.
In the Marketplace, the transaction process is: storage miners pledge hard disk sectors to the consensus network, and place orders and sell their own storage space in the Marketplace; storage users initiate purchase requests, complete the matching of storage requests through the Marketplace, and store data in the space of the storage miners.
Different from other block-chain applications, Lambda is a storage mining project, we have miners mine on Lambda network. Earn LAMB tokens by contributing on the network, and users who have data storing requirements pay Lamb tokens to purchase services accordingly.
The price of Lamb token not only rely on the exchanges but also supported by our miners who are doing works on the network.
There are four roles in the Lambda mining network: storage miners (providers of storage space), verification miners (ensuring the integrity and security of data and packaging transactions), retrieval miners (providing download bandwidth), and users (storage buyers). 1024 verification miners promoted from storage miners constitute the Lambda-chain consensus network. So you will see three types of miners serve our users from all over the world.
The key milestones we are looking at is the launch of test-net, where miners can start mining and earn testing Lamb tokens, the date will be around end of Jan. 2019 and main network will go live in Q2, 2019, most likely in Apr.
Regarding our partnership, In the academic field, we have established a strategic partnership with Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), which is well known in China for its engineering and computer science research programs, to conduct research into centralized storage.
In the commercial field, Lambda has established a strategic collaboration with IOST, a well-known public blockchain project, and Perlin, a super computing platform, and started to conduct pilot projects for decentralized application (DAPP) companies such as DATA and BCV. Lambda also has close ties to many leading Internet data centers (IDCs) in China. They join the Lambda network as miners and take advantage of their surplus server capacity to engage in the Lambda network ecology.
Q: Will the rest of the code be open sourced? If so when ?
Lambda: we have released the codes of core function module, the test net codes will be released gradually in Jan. pls stay tuned with our official github
Q: What can Lamb tokens be used for?
Lambda: Lambs are tokens in the Lambda ecosystem, which are mainly used in the following scenarios:
A. Users of services in the Lambda ecosystem have to pay with Lambda tokens.
B. Providers of storage services in the system have to pledge a certain number of tokens.
C. Verification nodes in the system have to pledge a certain number of tokens.
D. Verification nodes can obtain a certain number of tokens as accounting rewards.
E. Storage nodes get a certain number of tokens based on their storage capacity and their service level agreements (SLAs).
F. Other roles in the Lambda ecosystem can also obtain a certain number of tokens based on their contributions.
Q: What more incentives does miner gets to mine or rent storage on Lambda?
Lambda: every miner stars from storage miner on Lambda network, they get paid by providing storage space, when their business getting bigger, system will select the top 1024 storage miners and promote them to validator, who will get block generation rewards from system.
Q: how are the 1024 miners selected? Doesn't this become more centralised?
Lambda: we did a survey to the Chinese miners, they mainly fall into two groups, either are waiting FileCoin to go live with purchased mining machine idle at home or they are doing hard drive or graphic cards mining, which has a high requirement to the hardware standard. To mine on Lambda, you need a mining machine ( computer ) that has big storage space ( because the bigger the higher probability you'll be promoted to be a validator ) and the connection to the internet
Q: How much is initial supply?
Lambda: Lambda did two rounds of fund raising, private investors have a lock up terms of 2+4+4 meaning the first 20% of tokens will only be released 2 months listing on exchange. so on the day one listing till 2 months there will be only around 0.5% initial circulation, and after 2 months, 5% in total. in addition to that, as we are recruiting miners to join our network, actually ppl have been in a situation where they can't wait to mine on our testnet. with the mining mechanism we have, miners need to buy Lamb token to get their mining work started, because a certain amount of pledge need to be made
Q: What partnership will lambda and bitmax have in the future?
Lambda: We value the way BitMax doing things and care about projects, we feel like we found the right exchange to be listed, in particular an initial listing. we will work with BitMax and do some joint campaigns to boost the community
George: We have great chemistry with lambda team.
Q: And are you still primary list in there, I heard the list was delay? Is it related to Huobi?
Lambda: you are right, it is related to Huobi, but one thing you can be assured of is that our initial listing on BitMax wont change, but most likely a joint listing with Huobi.
Q: what about the time of primary list?
Lambda: we will primarily list very soon, we are targeting end of this week, now we are in the middle of some technical integration with Huobi
George: We can assure everyone that our team will do our best to protect our investors and serve our listing projects. The promise does not change whether or not if we co-list with huobi.
Q: We get reward to mine ? Any incentive? For testnet
Lambda: Yes, you have two ways obtain Lamb tokens, buy from exchange and earn more from mining, but firstly you have to buy Lamb on BitMax haha. Are you asking the reward from testnet by mining on it? yes, you will get test Lamb token, and they can be redeemed to Lamb token with a ratio that will be specified shortly. on Lambda official website www.lambda.im, we have whitepaper, besides that we also have economic whitepaper to explain how the lambda economic system runs, on Dec. 28 we will launch our yellow paper where we will demonstrate the detailed technical realization and all the parameter setting for mining on Lambda
Q: What are the implications if a miners rig goes offline or they decide to stop?
Lambda: If miners rig goes off, they will not get the reward from the corresponding generated block, if they do cheating there will be punishment from the system, and if they decide to quit, the pledge will be returned
Q: Lambda planning to have own FS?
Lambda: Yes, FS and consensus network is separate. validators and marketplace are on the consensus network, while Files are in the File System.
Q: Is Lambda GDPR friendly?
Lambda: yes, we are
Q: Hi can u explain what’s the requirements of decentralized data . Do You think big companies will like to use lambda services .... or it’s for medium level enterprises as big companies will go for their in house system with their reliable nodes ...
Lambda: this is a good question, from I seeing it, ppl call out the protection of privacy, it is a trend and it takes steps. Lambda has two big groups of prospects users, one is DAPPs, another is the general industries such as big data, AI, IoT, Games, Financial, etc, as long as they need massive data storage demand, Lambda has the opportunity, data storage is expensive, especially when we are talking about big data, a lot of companies will value the cost in this area very much. currently we have lighthouse customer like DATA, BCV, VVshare, in the very near future, a game that is developed by Lambda team will also go live on Lambda network. from the BD perspective, Lambda will create a satellite network ( you can take it as channel network ) to bring us customers, we have a few reaching out to us already
Q: Why suddenly launched on Huobi
George Cao: I believe lambda team has its own consideration. Projects esp in bear market are facing pressures from different parties. Investors users exchanges. Not everything is under projects control. What we can do as an exchange is to stand by our partners and fully support them down the road
Lambda: thx for the answer
Q: I think you have made a great choice working with bitmax. Bitmax have really helped push new
coins and their site in general with good PR, marketing and reward/airdrop promotions
Lambda: strongly agree with you
Q: GDPR has taken over the EU and the UK so that is very important
Lambda: you are right, so we see to be GDPR friendly, which is one of our differentiator from FileCoin
Q: Being GDPR friendly , European market is a go for lambda
Lambda: I have this plan to develop European market by having a Raspberry program, it is still in planning.
George Cao: Let’s take a last question and move to lambda community:) And as usual we will pick 3 best questions. We will send out 1000 800 and 500 btmx. @lambda do you want to pick 3 questions ?
Q: Recent partnerships are interesting , can you tell us about coming q1 2019 both in terms of technical and marketing developments ?
Lambda: from Marketing side, we are focusing on Chinese miners community and potential European market ( like I said still in construction ) Korean market is another, and US market to go along our compliance path, Lambda has been strictly abide by the regulations. from technical side, the most important task we are targeting is the main network launch as planned
George Cao: Thanks everyone for your time. It’s a great ama as usual. We do have the best community. We will pick 3 winners and we will announce here after we finish ama in lambda community
Lambda: thank you all for your time to participate the AMA, I had a great time with you, see you friends and have a nice day.
George Cao: Hello everyone, Merry Christmas:)
Lambda: Hello Lambdos. Today we have George, the founder of BitMax to join us for the AMA. Let's give him a warm welcome to do a introduction of BitMax
George Cao: I am George Cao, founder of bitmax. I am happy to take the opportunity to talk to everyone here. Thanks to the lambda team. Let me start with a brief introduction about us.
Bitmax.io (btmx.io) is an exchange founded by a group of Wall Street veterans. Unlike most projects, we are kinda of old :) core team are in their 30ish - 50ish. The 10 founding member have combined of 150 years of Wall st experience. I have 10+ yrs of high frequency trading experience therefore I know the trading system well. That’s why our match engine can handle 400k tps per second vs huobi 1000 tps. We want to build an exchange that is transparent, robust, and efficient. While our system is the best in class, we offer the lowest trading fees. We believe the current high commission will not sustain and we will see consolidating of the exchanges with better depth and liquidity and lower commission. We are happy to partner with lambda, one of the best projects in 2018. We are committed to serve the project and the community. Alright, I am ready to take questions. Anything you can ask, as tough as you want :)
Q: Haha nice platform.
George Cao: Thanks. We are young as a platform but we are working to deliver the best
Q: I see reverse mining is new , I used many other mining exchange but all have normal mining . How does reverse mining works?
George Cao: Reverse mining is an innovative approach that helps the exchange and the project in several ways. 1) the concept of reverse mining is by providing liquidity to the exchange, you get a rebate and deduct out tokens from your account of the same valued. You can think of a otc sell our. 2) the benefit is it removes lots of sell pressure from the secondary market. And provides a strong support for the token price. 3) it introduces lots of liquidity to the exchange and benefits all traders
Q: The BTMX used in reverse mining are locked forever?
George Cao: Yes so the total number of tokens are always reducing your
Q: I've really been enjoying using the bitmax exchange so far especially with the low fees and data usage rewards. Does the exchange plan to bring in a shorting function in the near future?
George Cao: Yes we will have margin and futures trading
Q: It was supposed to December right ?
George Cao: We postponed our margin to Jan. The reason is we want to be more careful on protecting margin call protections.
Q: Margin trading and futures is important for BTMX price to drive up
George Cao: Totally agree
Q: Does BitMax have any activities on New Year's Day?
George: We do have multiple promotional events. Including but not limited to airdrops. Please visit our website and stay tuned
Q: I saw the whitepaper of bitmax, can you talk more about your dividends the formula is really hard for me ?
George Cao: Sure 80% of our commission goes to our fee pool. 1/180 of the total pool will be distributed daily. As long as you are a token holder, the current rate we pay is over 100% annually
Q: Oh I see, so the dividends will be smooth, great idea.
George Cao: Yes unlike other mining exchanges have huge volatility on div we smooth our curve
Q: I've also heard there is a mobile app in the works, is this likely to be released in the near future?
George Cao: Almost done. Beta version is in testing
Q: What about the north American, will it be available in the future?
George Cao: We more cleared our legal path for fiat trading in us. Q1 2019 we will launch in the us
Q: Great news I think this will bring a big volume.
George Cao: Yes agree. Our team is excited as well
Q: With promotional Airdrops that require a certain amount of the BTMX token to be held such as The lamb one that has taken place on the exchange this week. Are tokens that are locked for data usage or in cards taken into account when balance screenshots are taken?
George Cao: Yes we will take that into account
Q: When will be the private sale tokens be released ?
George Cao: As soon as we mined 90m we will start to release
Q: So let me get this right .. you give us FREE BTC and ltc and even Lambda EVERYDAY if we hold BTMX and agree to share our data
George Cao: Free usdt btc eth
Q: Wow. In a bear market, Free btc is the best thing ever
George Cao: We share revenue with our users, 90% is usdt. Not sure if you like it:)
Q: also consider adding coins like ADA and few from top 30. People need more coins
George Cao: We are adding stellar and zcash soon
Q: I heard they are insured Unless we give password to someone hehe
George Cao: Yes we are using custodian service
Q: George are our funds SAFU with you? Exchange insurance? I would say it is With the industry giants backing this exchange
George Cao: Sequoia matrix bitmain fbg dhvc are our equity investors
Q: What’s to stop People dumping BTMX token after free btc Or stop capital investor dumping on retailer
George Cao: They get it every day. Why would they dump? All equity investors can not sell on secondary market. They can only to reverse mining
Q: Will margin allow reverse mining instead of normal mining?
George Cao: Not initially
Q: People do irrational things when btc moves Or whales dumping, I heard there was a lock up token or something. To stop this
George Cao: We required lock our tokens to get rewards. You can request to unlock at anytime but it takes 24 hours to process
Q: Binance is developing DEX any plans for BitMax ?
George Cao: Not anytime soon we have a looong to do:)
Q: It's good you have dex in mind , with improved scalability in future maybe bitmax can build good dex
George Cao: Agree
Q: Retail investors are important , George knows it haha
George Cao: We care most of retails
Q: It would help if they also burned or locked tokens up
George Cao: Yes we permanently locked
Q: Seems you have everything thought of.. but how about moving to Malta?
George Cao: We priority US. Once us is clear pretty much everywhere is clear
Q: Doesn’t any exchange cover US right now?
George Cao: Coinbase but they have 0 international coverage and 0 client service
Q: What sort of systems are in place for abnormal/suspicious activity on the exchange?
George Cao: We prohibit self trading. For unusual trading behavior we ban the account and as for explain in the first violation. For continued violations we permanently ban the account
Q: can we get a glimpse of mobile application ?
George Cao: There is a beta version you can use but we are keep improving
Q: What are the precautions taken to prevent wash trading ?
George Cao: We have pre trade and post trade checksums. E.g we don’t just scan one account. We check or related account
Q: Will market orders and stop-loss orders be available in the future?
George Cao: Yes we are working on it
Q: what do you think of lambda project and community
George Cao: Lambda is definitely one of the best projects this year. We have been working with lambda for months and have lots of respect ion for the team. Community is also great very well organized. I didn’t talk much but I joined lambda tele group for a while. Great interaction
Q: So the trading starts at 8 pm ETC?
George Cao: It’s postponed. Please stay tuned for announcements
Lambda: We will make announcement giving out time and new date.
Q: when please? It's also more professional to be able to give dates and respect them
Lambda Cao: we are working hard and aiming the date of Dec. 29, pls stay tuned, thank you
George: Unfortunately bitmax and lambda don’t have 100% control of the date and time. Huobi is holding the ball
Lambda: The listing dates have been postponed and we don't want to give out a random date. I request you to have patience and wait for official announcement
Lambda: we will try everything to protect retails interest
Q: Can’t let houbi just arrive late to the party?
Lambda: in the long run we may need Huobi to help us better protect us all
George Cao: We trust lambda team can make the best decision for all investors
Q: Have you been busy with listing recently? Anything else?
George Cao: We have been working 24 hours a day including Chris eve :) Listing and app and margin and lots of new improvements
Q: Why would we need huobi with bitmax on our side.
George Cao: Trust me we are as upset. However as an exchange our mission is to serve projects and investors. Please join us in fully supporting any decision lambda team made. We have 100% confidence in lambda
Q: Are you familiar with the REKTbot and SYSTEM OVERLOAD problems at bitmex
George Cao: Yes but still bitmex is the best place to trade future compare with okex
Q: Slap that Hayes fool when bitmax start margin and futures..
George Cao: Haha i don’t want to declare war with them. Let’s be a bit patient :)
Q: Could bitmax handle That volume and not system overload
George Cao: We are 100% confident
George Cao: Alright i have to run for another meeting. It’s been a great ama. Thanks everyone. For any trading related questions please contact our client support. We promise to get in touch in 5 mins 7/24. Thank you all!
Lambda: thank you for participation, have a nice day!
submitted by BitMax_Support to BitMax [link] [comments]

What Bitcoin’s Valuation Says About Its Volatility

What Bitcoin’s Valuation Says About Its Volatility


Article by Coindesk: Noelle Acheson
Most of us think we understand the term “volatility.”
We digest headlines about tense political situations around the world; we are wary of explosive chemical compounds; some of us have had relationships with their fair share of ups and downs.
“Volatility” implies sharp and unpredictable changes, and usually has negative connotations. Even when it comes to financial markets, we intuitively shy away from investments that would produce wild swings in our wealth.
But volatility, in finance, is usually misunderstood. Even the most commonly accepted calculation is often incorrectly applied.
Its desirability is also confusing. Investors hate it unless it makes them money. Traders love it unless it means too high a risk premium.
And few of us understand where it comes from. Many think that it’s the result of low liquidity*. This intuitively makes sense: with thin trading volume, a large order can push prices sharply up or down. But empirical studies show that it’s actually the other way around: volatility leads to low liquidity, through the wider spread market makers apply to compensate the additional risk of holding a volatile asset in their inventory.
(*The misconception also stems from our mistaken conflation of low liquidity and low volume — it is possible to have high volume and low liquidity, but that’s for another post.)
This confusion matters in the crypto sector.
Bitcoin’s volatility has often been cited as the reason why it will never make a good store of value, a reliable payment token or a solid portfolio hedge. Many of us fall into the trap of assuming that as the market matures, volatility will decrease. This leads us to believe in use cases that may not ever be appropriate; it can also lead us to apply incorrect crypto asset valuation methods, portfolio weightings and derivative strategies that could have a material impact on our bottom line.
So it’s worth picking apart some of the assumptions and looking at why bitcoin’s unique characteristics can help us better understand market fundamentals more broadly.

Changing uncertainty

First, there are different types of market volatility. Academic literature provides an array of variations, each with its distinct formula and limitations. Jump-diffusion models used to value assets hint at a helpful differentiation. “Jump” volatility results, as its name implies, from a sudden event. “Diffuse” volatility, however, is part of the standard trading patterns of an asset, its “usual” variation.
With this we can start to see that, when we assume that greater liquidity will dampen price swings, we’re talking about “jump” volatility.
“Diffuse” volatility, however, is a more intrinsic concept.
The standard deviation calculation — the most commonly applied measure of volatility — incorporates the destabilizing effect of sharp moves by using the square of large deviations (otherwise they could be offset and masked by small ones). But this exaggerates the effect of outliers, which are often the result of “jump” volatility. These are likely to diminish as transaction volume grows, leading to a misleadingly downward-sloping volatility graph.
JP Koning proposes an alternative calculation that uses the deviation from the middle value rather than the average, which reduces the effect of outliers and shows a more intrinsic volatility measure. As the below chart shows, this has not noticeably decreased over the years.
(chart from Moneyness blog)
Now let’s look at why this might be. A clue lies in the methods used to value bitcoin.

Fundamental value

Bitcoin is one of the few “real assets” traded in markets today, in that it does not derive its value from another asset.
What’s more, it is a “real asset” with no discernible income stream. This makes it very difficult to value. Even junior analysts can calculate the “fair value” of an asset that spins off cash flows or that returns a certain amount at the end of its life. Bitcoin has no cash flows, and there is no “end of life,” let alone an identifiable value.
So, what drives the value of bitcoin?
Many theories have been put forward, some of which we describe in our report “Crypto’s New Fundamentals.” And as the market evolves, some may rise in favor while others get forgotten or superseded.
For now, though, the main driver of bitcoin’s value is sentiment: it’s worth what the market thinks it’s worth. In the absence of fundamentals, investors try to figure out what other investors are going to think. Keynes likened this to a contest in which “we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”
Gold is in a similar situation, in that it is also a “real asset” with no income stream and a market value largely driven by sentiment.
So, why is its volatility so much lower?

(chart from Woobull)
Because of “radical uncertainty.”

Changing narratives

In his book “The End of Alchemy”, Mervyn King explains that under “radical uncertainty,” market prices are determined, not by fundamentals, but by narratives about fundamentals.
Bitcoin is a new technology, and as such, we don’t yet know what its end use will be. Everyone has their theory, but as with all new technologies, no-one can be certain, which makes its narrative changeable.
Gold, on the other hand, is neither new nor a technology. It has been around for millennia, and its narrative is not uncertain. Sentiment plays an important part in its valuation, and scientists may yet uncover an innovative use for the metal that affects both demand and price. But its “story” is well established, which gives it a lower volatility profile.
For now, bitcoin’s fundamentals are its narrative, and the uncertainty about bitcoin’s “story” means that its volatility is unlikely to diminish any time soon.

A more prominent role

This matters for its eventual use case: will it always be too volatile to be used as a payment token, store of value, etc.? This in turn impacts its narrative, which affects its valuation and volatility, which affects its eventual use case. The self-perpetuating loop will eventually be broken as the sector matures and bitcoin’s role as an alternative asset class becomes more firmly consolidated — when uncertainty diminishes and its “intrinsic value” becomes easier to quantify.
But until then, its price will continue to be driven by market sentiment, which is susceptible to changeable narratives that in turn are formed by global developments and also by market sentiment.
Until then, market shifts will continue to be amplified in either direction, whatever the trading volume.
Rather than fret about this, we should accept and even embrace it. Increasingly sophisticated providers are working on improving the access to and interpretation of sentiment data, which strengthens our analytical tools. Crypto Twitter provides an engrossing platform to gauge the sector’s mood. And the identification of the impact of narrative and sentiment on an asset class will open up new avenues of investigation that is likely to spill over into other areas of investing.
What’s more, volatility may be inconvenient for some and uncomfortable for many. But it is also an important component of superior returns. Perhaps the tools and skills we develop to hone our bitcoin valuation techniques will enable a more masterful handling of volatility’s inherent uncertainty, and allow for a deeper appreciation of what it has to offer.
Roller coaster image via Shutterstock
submitted by GTE_IO to u/GTE_IO [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed
You know the scenario...
Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.
You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.
Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:
For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)
A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:
  1. Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
  2. Get historical daily bitcoin prices
  3. Calculate daily returns
  4. Name the daily return range
  5. Summary statistics
  6. Simulate a year
  7. Simulate a year many times
  8. Multi-year summary statistics
  9. Quick analysis of results

STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:
The GBM is technically a Markov process, which is a fancy way of saying "A random process whose future probabilities are determined by its most recent values." Said another way, past price information is already incorporated and the next price movement is "conditionally independent" of past price movements.
Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.
The formula for GBM is as follows:
gBm formula
Where:
This formula can be broken down into two very important terms: "drift" and "shock".
For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

The ELI5 version: The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.
But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.
Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.
Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.
Zeus Striking Down the Price
And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.
For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.
Columns Setup OHLCV
Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:
=LN(C2/B2) 
Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire Returns column
Calculate Daily Returns

STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called returns, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range returns:
Name the range returns

STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:
In K1, enter:
=C2 
and name it close.
In K2, enter:
=STDEV(returns) 
and name it dailyVolatility
In K3, enter:
=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365) 
and name it annualVolatility
In K4, enter:
=AVERAGE(returns) 
and name it dailyDrift
In K5, enter:
=dailyDrift*365 
and name it annualDrift
In K6, enter:
=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2 
and name it meanDrift
Create Summary Statistics Table

STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:
=J12+1 
Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377
Time

Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.
Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.
In K13, put the formula:
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1) 
Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole Normdist column:
Normdist

Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.
In L13, put the formula:
=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13 
Copy the formula all the way down to L377:
Log Return

Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.
In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:
=M12*EXP(L13) 
Copy the formula all the way down to M377:
Simulated Price

Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.
Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:
Simulated Price for One Year
We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.
Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.
In B3, put the formula:
=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1)) 
Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":
Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:
=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5 
Multiyear Summary Statistics

STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:
Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129 
How to read: We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.
Wait really? Should I buy? No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.
Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!
Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.
With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.
Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

IRC Log from Ravencoin Open Developer Meeting - Sept 7, 2018

Hi all
Greetings and salutations!
two is a good number for lips
sup
how do you dooski?
{|}
Jesse is not going to make it.
master
salut
so what is todays topic
Yes, who's moderating? Announcements, etc.
well i guess thats chatturgas job
but hes not here so idk
I'm a poor substitute for Jesse. I'm moderating today.
lol
Just FYI, there is a testnet5 with unique assets. Build from release_2.0.5 branch.
Are we able to connect to the testnet v5 seed nodes?
Yes. Testnet seed nodes are working now.
Yes. Testnet5 seed nodes are working now.
https://medium.com/@Tronblack/ravencoin-asset-issuance-cost-52b553c507cb
Medium
Ravencoin — Asset Issuance Cost – Tron Black – Medium
Let me start by thanking everybody in the community that has passionately contributed thoughts and ideas on the economics of asset…
looks like im compiling the binaries lol
I wrote a blog post about the pros/cons of the various burn options.
If anyone wants to weigh-in on their preference.
Because of the simplicity, I lean towards the first two options listed.
2.0.5 isn't going to be put on the webpage as an official binary release is that right?
Yes, that's right.
But, I'd encourage anyone to build it and run it on testnet5
i personally prefer the halvening option
@russkidooski With a particular floor?
yep
500->250->125
the best option isn't listed, POM
tl what's POM?
Proof of Market
ah
zaab is the author and just joined
Yes
Hi Boo and Zaab
Also "Prisoner Of her Majesty"
Sorry on vacation so not all in on this conversation but felt it was importsnt to join
Hey Zaab, welcome!
Hi all. Just observing. Hope no one minds.
Thanks for taking the time to write that article Zaab, it was very thought provoking.
Hi s&l
If anything, that was its main purpose
hello
I prepped some questions i had before i realized i could make it
great
1. Why was a burn deemed necessary at all? What is the purpose of it? 2. How/why was the number 500 chosen. Was an economic analysis ran? Or was an analyzis done on how many assests could be reasonably handled (thus needed an asset amount cap)
3. Tell me the truth, how likely are you to impliment any alternative idea. Are we wasting our time making our cases?
Shotgun!
being in favor becauseit is simplicity is not a plan for success; POM is fairly simple and will give a true market pricing
And i dont mean nust my own
Just*
any code contribution with ideas would be appreciated and tested.
That's a lot of questions.
Burning RVN helps the economics of the coin. Fewer circulating supply (more scarcity) the higher the value of the coin (assuming all else equal).
Also, there should be a cost to creating asset names in the namespace.
that is only half the economic formula
Burn is necessary because there must be a cost to consume the resources of the network.
hi bw
I didnt realize making the coin economical was one of the purposes of the coin
We could've recycled the RVN back through the miners (like fees), but the burn economics should help RVN price.
IMHO, all the well designed coins have a good economic model behind them.
Also sorry i would code it if i could but im not a programmer, if that invalidates my ideas so be it
It doesn't Zaab
recycle seems much more complex than POM
Because you tie good economics to a good mining base which is what ultimately is needed for security
It doesn't invalidate your ideas, but some of the complexities introduced with your ideas may not be feasible before Oct 1 (RC goal date).
simplicity/predictability is the guiderail here on burn vs recycle
This is deadline does not feel healthy
The ideas in POM, which I'll address in a minute also cause some issues.
launch deadline should not be more important than a successful launch design
agreed!
My preference is burn with diminishing price over time.
When creating an asset, all nodes must agree on the price, and if that changes each block (or frequently), there may be issues. The signed transaction may sit in the mempool waiting for confirmation and the "price" in RVN may change.
To me a burn has 2 purposes only. One prevent a spam attack and two for the transaction id of the burn to act as a signature of authenticity of an asset
Zaab I'll tell the truth -- we want the best solution, but for all parties including application developers. Project planners like being able to budget and whole numbers.
simple is better
fix the price daily based on an avg; could taht solve
we don't want the nightmare of eth gas
The authenticity isn't an issue, because there are other ways to handle it.
What ive proposed at its maximum only increases under 2 rvn per day. Thats well within planning limits
@twolips An average of what?
POM formula being based on an avg of max burn and daily burn numbers
@Zaab If I understood your paper correctly (not a given) then it seems like the cost went down as more assets were created. Is that the case, or did I misunderstand the chart.
that ius healthy
^^
at that point, the value of RVN will increase
As assets are created the remaining burnable rvn drops. Thus price drops
because of function not scarcity
As rvn are mined the remaining burnable rvn increases thus price increases
POM seemed to show higher burnrate, lower RVN cost (-10 RVN delta).
hi X_K
hi
You need to burn 3,600,000 rvn daily just to keep up with mining. POM will almost certainly cause price to increase
That seems backwards to me -- from an economic standpoint.
Just like crypto is deflationary, its backwarsa
Backwards
So if fewer people are creating assets, the price increases?
sdrawkcaB
Yep
blink
That seems counterintuitive to the project tho
How so
To me, price determines demand, not the other way around
Again -- that seems backwards. "Nobody is coming into our store, now we have to sell these sofas for a $1,000,000"
Thought the whole idea of rvn was asset creation
there are 2 aspects, cost of creation and value of RVN
But theres no maximim to sofas in the world you could always make more
both cause moves
Not the case with rvn
What do you all think about the 5-4-3-2-1 model?
If not many are being created, the cost of creation should be lower.
The value of RVN is closely tied to mining hash rate, but not correlated with number of asset names created.
you sell the for 1,000,000 but that is in Venezuelan bolívar
bad example
@boodog The purpose of RVN is assets. Not necessarily asset issuance.
As far as mempool blockage i envisioned something similar to mining difficulty calculation. Where it checks the previous assets created in comparison to the current one within a valid range
Tron_: thanks for clarification
I expect lots of assets to be created, but even better would be some really quality assets with real use cases and transactions on the nodes.
How many assets can the network currently handle?
More than the real world needs
More then 42million?
none compare to POM
As coded, 6000 per block for issuances.
But those issuances would squeeze out transactions.
Ok
@zabb that would mean that some transactions in the mempool would be valid and some wouldn't because they were created at different time.
42million is maximum not including sub assets or unqiue assets or reissuing
If we hit high loads, there are some scalability improvements we can make.
Ya that part of the idea isnt fully worked out but i dont know whats techicnally possible
True, as coded 42,000,000 root level assets is a max.
42MM is not accurate because as some point there is a breaking point where we price ourselves out of business
I meant if we had 42mil assets could the network support it
Lots more, sub-level assets. So a market could form under "COM" for example.
hi Skan
@twolips the question was how much can the network handle. not pricing
demand for the rare RVN will be expensive and competition will come in with a much better idea
Hi everybody
and 42MM was mention as max...not a true number
@Zaab It could issue them, but transaction volume has its limits at about 20x what Bitcoin does (sans Lightning).
Also again how did the number 500 come up? Did you do an econmic analysis or is it set based on max workload of the network
the breaking point is probably, at best, near half of that
if you haven't, you should all read zaab's proposal
options 5,4,3,2,1 can not be fairly comment ed on withot reading POM
Link please?
https://medium.com/@Zaab/ravencoin-proof-of-market-an-asset-issuance-cost-alternative-c5b6f9457acf
Medium
Ravencoin — Proof of Market: An Asset Issuance Cost Alternative
9/5/2018 — In response to “Ravencoin — Asset Issuance Cost” by Tron Black
Ty
Hitting the maximum number of asset is not nearly as worrisome nor pressing of an issue as the economic design , in my opinion
discord #burn-discussion as ongoing convo on this topic
Ive got to go, id like the 3 questions i posted earlier answered if possible. Ill be around if anyone has any questions.
POM would be more compelling if there was a (-) in there somewhere.
Depending on question 3 i will be willing to write 2 more papers
One attacking my own idea
When I foresee obstacles in the future for RVN having used the coin to it's maximum potential is very low on the list
One defending it
Bye!
Take care everyone! Thank you for all the hard work!
peace
Later Zaab
Thanks Zaab!
To hit maximum number of assets and not be able to issue anymore means that RVN worked to the highest extent
it's hard to model; it's hard to predict
but there will be no adoption if budgeting isn't easy for application developers
imo
eth gas is a nightmare
true
The NASDAQ has ~3,300 companies on it. For reference and understanding this means if the NASDAQ completely converts all its companies to RVN, the total RVN burned will be….. ~1,650,000 or roughly 22% of the total RVN mined daily (until halving). Therefore, the amount of RVN burned will unlikely have any effect on the value of RVN if the proposed system is allowed to pass.
not only market flux but the MATHS
We will never come anywhere near that if the economic design makes it unappealing to issue assets on RVN. A decay to the cost as a safeguard against having become too expensive against dollars or investment of resources to model is necessary. Making so we can issue more assets than our wildwst dreams is a much lower priority and doesn't even matter unless the rest is figured out
Resources to mine*
i stand by the halvening model with a minimum
simple and effective
what about all the other assets we want to be tokenized
The most attractive thing to big time players is security, which implies hashrate, which implies value, which implies adoption (buy pressure)..
vehicles, land deeds, gold bars....
I think halving should be a safeguard not a regular thing, so iirc the chain has ways of knowing how many assets are being issued. I say we only even trigger an upcoming happening if assets being issued grinds to a halt, indicating price issues
I'm on halvening too althought I like the 5-4-3-2-1 flavor
Otherwise whatever the burn fee is is working fine, no reason to just always half it without context
halving is a sharp cost adjustment...talk about bidgeting issues
DGW for asset? lol
POm smooths this out
@skan that would allow people to attack the network by now issuing assets. forcing a halving
no Skan it needs to be predictable to normals because planning/budgeting
not*
the worse thing we can do is design limitations into the project
As it stands it costs 18 cents to issue assets on ethereum. Say what you will about the quality or lack of features, it's still a factor that we are competing against. Obviously RVN is different because there are only so many unique asset names and it has more complex and easier to use features, so it should be more expensive. But we are already starting our nearly x100 before we even go live
twolips it's not an algorithm -- it needs to interact with buyers/users or it's worthless
Skan yeah and did you read that smart contract code?
You're getting into ???
we're UTXO
i know
i dont know algos, i know user
thats the perspective i come from
You don't have to, their browser automatically singles out the important variables for you to change
yeah user want's cheap/easy
and predictable
@Tron what is your preference?
Why is Roshii so quiet? ;)
I say we code in a burn fee halvening that only triggers itself if no assets or very few assets have been issued for an extended period of time
relaxing from a talking section
@skan again that allows the network to the attacked
In this order: 500 RVN -> 500 RVN with halvening and 125 floor -> 500 RVN with 20% drop from original price each halvening.
@skan That doesn't work
when does it half?
@Tron Thnx
skan; have you read POM, kinda does that
Every 2,100,000 blocks. Should be roughly 4 years.
I'm on (3) in tron's list but (1) is ok too
Interesting, how so?
you have to read it
POM is not that -- it would be that with a (-) somewhere..
@skan, user, or miners wouldn't accepts asset transaction into blocks. Which would trigger a halving.
What @CORbie means is that the economics of POM as written seem backwards.
@skan, I'm not saying that would happen. But it is an easy attack vector that we can avoid.
The best part about flat rate of 500 is that if it becomes an issues down the road when more variables are known, we can reevaluate changing to a cheaper model.
Why make asset name creation cheaper when lots of names are being created?
^^
i think we are redesigning an economic model, that is the beauty
sounds like a recipe for spamming the network
a spam recipe? sounds dubious.. :)
again there are 2 values; the cost of creation and the value of a RVN
Absolutely should get more expensive or stay flat with high demand, not cheaper.
the halvening model tron is talking about seems to be the simplest and most predictable
^^
There is an interesting case study with the fixed cost to create a proposal in Dash. It was 5 Dash. That was really cheap at the time (under $5). The same 5 Dash went to $8000.
yes Russ -- the thing the 5-4-3-2-1 adds is legibility/budgetability to app developers (I don't think that's a word)
They haven't changed it, but there were solutions that were built around it.
if a lot are being created, RVN is succeeding, demand increases, RVN cost per creation goes down as value increases...keeping it affordable for all that desire to tokenize assets
And, the value of a Dash proposal went way up when the masternodes were kicking out millions.
Halvening model is my preference
how are we going to vote this?
on discord?
halving on a time schedule will not give a true market value
RVN already has market value
@twolips, you are associating asset creation to rvn value increasing. It doesn't work that way. It is almost always difficulty -> value increasing
@russkidooski By writing and running code :)
frog; you seem to be speaking from a miners perspective
A vote would be interesting - not binding - but really interesting.
the devs have a preference and people will ultimately follow them
@twolips, i am speaking from the perspective that the only thing that holds value is being able to make sure that the value is secure.
the devs have a preference and people MAY follow them
the devs.. those guys..
Would be interesting but could cause community issues if not chosen by devs. I am for no voting. Write and run code.
it is a complex issue; votes should only occur after big discussion
BW agree
let's take an informal vote now
Votes are never needed.
here it is
i vote for pizza
type 1 for 500, 2 for half, 3 for 5-4-3-2-1, 4 for POM, 5 for other
go
3
which one is the 5-4-3-2-1?
i forgot
and this is why no cvote should occure
20% discount at each halving.
like half but -20% orig value
o yea i like that one
3
not famil with the plan
20% discount at each halving. 500->400->300->200->100
Unique asset issuance cost 5->4->3->2->1
russ, how well do you know POM?
Nice round numbers.
not crazy well
but enough
i need to read up on it more
POM seems backwards to me.
same
have you read the proposal?
@twolips Are you recommending POM with the economics as written, or the opposite economics?
this is all backwards
6 (-) POM
yes
well
i see 2 votes
no but it is a great starting point
you guys are so opinionated!
the variables need to be analysed
KISS 54321
ok! there's #3
any more informal non-binding votes?
Is 3 winning?
3 has 3
no other votes
the beauty is when the cost of creation goes down, say to .05 RVN, the value of RVN will be 1,000
VeronicaBOTLast Friday at 3:00 PM
exaggerated for demenstration
if cost goe to 1kRVN, the value willbe .05
^^
twolips. Are you saying that as more assets are created the price decreases?
brb
not the 'price', the cost of creation, yes
okay.
there needs to be a thorough analysis of POM
in the beginning of the #burn-discussion, there are some simple spread sheet examples
but with zaabs proposal it is backwards
how so
more assets being created > price for creation goes down
that is just asking the network to be spammed
So, that only works if the price of raven in the real world follows it. If not, the cost of creation will get lower, and people will start to be able to spam the network with assets.
^
This will make the nodes use more databasing and memory to run RVN.
This is bad ^^
and if a node isnt in sync you can get a lot of problems
this keeps the reation cost stable...great for customer acqusition
but it isnt technically feasable, we dont want the problems ethereum has
can that be cured with avging?
So because it is good for customer aqusition it is okay? Even if it is bad for the network?
daily, weekly,monthy? avgs to adjust cost of creation?
a opposed to what zaab said; each transaction, cost changes?
Lot's of talk but only 3 votes?
type 1 for 500, 2 for half, 3 for 5-4-3-2-1, 4 for POM, 5 for other
6 (-) POM
the POM seems to be a simple formula to be coded in (maybe naive)
i vote 3 if my vote counts, i feel like it has to be a set number, it would be easy to change if needed in future.
idk about network issues
@xiztak agreed
there's 4 for #3 with no other voes -- make it 5
X changing it in the future shows a centralized coin
how
who makes that decision
3 but I'm not for voting
community
and when
it's informal BW just taking temp
community is talkin about it now
and voting
for a set number
uninformed
outline for me vote 2?
haha
haha
2 is following the halvening of coinbase -- 500 250 125 to some floor
1 o 3
of course the 500 magic number is up for debate in 1,2,3..
I agree it would be good to know where 500 came from.
Meaning the thinking behind that exact number
i suggest nybody serious about the importance of this topic, to join the active convo
Maybe @Tron_ can tell a story but it's just (starting_block_reward/10) in my mind..
important to the success of all your hard work
twolips I don't know what that means -- you mean Discord or something?
as far as i know, that is the most active
or do you mean there are like 4 cats in here?
why people in Discord when we here? talk about shouting at clouds..
5000 per block so 500 per aseet creation so 10% of mined coins per block? maybe
^^
interesting
@twolips is there a floor that the cost of issuance would get to on POM?
if attacked it could be 0 or 1 then its game over
seems in the rough spreadsht examples
corbie; here once a week...startin 3 weeks ago
and it's been fun!
a lot more fun in discord
i'm hjere al week...tip ur waitresses
-_-
Is there anything more we are going to discuss?
maybe Xiz concept may fit into POM
need zaab to think about
Nothing on my agenda -- final informal vote seems to favor 5-4-3-2-1
no real support for POM (zorry zaab)
Thanks everyone!
wow, an uninformed vote...impressive
you vote?
what's your vote twolips I don't think I got it
this vote is informal, it means nothing really
^^
exactly
so you don't want to make an informal meaningless vote twolips?
i case u haven't noticed...team POM
ok!!
but (-) or no?
because as is it makes no sense as many of us have pointed out..
haha
many uninformed
..
4 cats i think u called them
I can read and do basic math..
that was just a reference to nobody being here..
write up a retort to zaabs propasal explainin (-); would love to seeit
I like the idea of using ratio of coinbase to burn to set market, just has it in wrong direction
And I'm a (3) guy so don't think we want market anyway..
POM is a self regulating federal reserve
revolutionary and RVN could intro it to the world
Thanks for the discussion everyone -- I'm signing off. Buy RVN!
hope you are all putting a lil more thought into this...could be make or break
@twolips. We are 100% putting lots of thought into this
@twolips This is something that is very important to RVN
i know...hence my passion
and I truely believe POM can be revolutionary
It could be, sure. There are lots of different good option though tbh.
bring thm up...lets out the community to work
a lot of eager minds
POM needs to be more thoroughly developed
we also need working prototypes
it started with fixed burn number and progressed
Can someone point me to a good readup on POM
bring in some thoughts
#burn-discussion on discord
i (vincent) invited you on rvntalk
We're done thank you
submitted by Chatturga to Ravencoin [link] [comments]

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submitted by wealthjustin to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3a - The value proposition

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. *
...
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
In part 3 I will now discuss Cryptocurrency valuations, price metrics and identifying coins of value, worth holding.
...
What makes a coin worth holding: The value proposition
What makes anything worth holding? How much of themselves is a person willing to put into it - that's how much.
Cryptocurrency is largely driven by faith. It is a speculative enterprise i.e. people mostly put money into cryptocurrencies believing they will go up in value in the future; their plan to sell at a higher price when it does.
Currently most cryptocurrencies serve no function than being currencies in themselves. Unfortunately these currencies are largely not recognised by governments, most institutional investors or companies are legitimate stores of value or legitimate currencies of transaction. As such legislation and rules around the world regarding them vary considerably and are often absent.
There are very few cryptocurrencies that have legitimised backing, are insured or supported by enterprises that are insured for their loss and essentially there is little to protect you if you lose money through them.
So why do people bother putting money into cryptocurrencies it in the first place?
If the present and future value of a cryptocurrency is driven purely by speculation then you are essentially gambling by putting your money to buy that coin and joining the pool of other gamblers who are doing so. You are essentially joining a ponzi scheme and waiting game hoping you've gotten in early enough and convinced enough people to buy more of the asset you hold at slightly higher prices until a price is reached that you can cash out at (or until that thing becomes so big that everyone starts using it as their store of value).
This type of dynamic essentially underpins the mentality of most investments and trades i.e. buy low and sell high. I'd like to add buy early for investors since buying during a low in an already established asset may be setting yourself up for being forced to sell at a lower low later (especially if you don't understand the fundamentals of that asset).
If however the present or future value of a cryptocurrency is driven by some service other than speculation which can attract and drive fiat currency into it's ecosystem then it is potentially valuable.
I.e. will people actually use their USD/Yuan/Euro/GBP/Yen/INR etc to actually purchase the coin in question to do something useful with it (other than gamble on it's future price).
There are some cryptocurrencies which satisfy this criteria:
...
Bitcoin
It is not a currency, it is a remittance system and store of value. It has a reputation increasingly to being seen as a digital version of gold.
Bitcoin has the cultural and historical advantage of being the first cryptocurrency. It is also still the largest cryptocurrency by a long way with the largest marketcap i.e. price per bitcoin [$952 as of writing] x the number of bitcoin in circulation [16,074,687] which is $15.3 billion. Compare to it's next biggest competitor Ethereum which has a marketcap of $700 million (i.e. only 4.57% of Bitcoin's).
Bitcoin's value proposition is that it is a store of value. It may not be able to sustain this without significant upgrades to it's underlying software.
...
Monero (XMR)
Bitcoin does not have anonymity inherently built into it's software. Therefore if you buy and sell Bitcoin especially on cryptocurrency exchanges (where user registration is required), it is possible to trace whom Bitcoin is being transferred from and to.
For this reason I see Monero as Bitcoin + anonymity. I.e. it's value proposition is as store of hidden wealth. I also believe it does not have the issues that bitcoin does namely, same level of mainstream recognition, spotlight of regulatory awareness and developers do seem to be more focused on achieving better scalability and transaction times (it already does 10-20 minute verification time vs bitcoins 1 hour) which gives it better potential as a currency presently compared to Bitcoin.
-This sort of market cap dwarfs gold. However this type of up-scaled usability will not occur until the transaction verification times are much faster (nanoseconds) and the protocol is enhanced to cope with much larger transactions volumes and frequency at that speed; We are a long way off that.
I do believe fiat stored in Bitcoin will gradually transfer into Monero boosting it's value. I am not sure Monero though can presently bring fresh fiat currency (USD, Yuan etc) into it's ecosystem beyond outsider speculation in future price.
It is not unique in it's function or potential value proposition. My warning about holding Monerofor the long term is that it has competition for it's function not just from Bitcoin itself but from other anonymous coins such as Zcash, DASH (which provides instantaneous settlement) and SDC. Perhaps more importantly, Ethereum (ETH) is now planning to implement optional anonymity (via zSNARKs) in it's transaction network; if it does when combined with Ethereum's own functionality and well defined development roadmap (that will likely several second verification times in late 2017) would render XMR potentially redundant.
...
Ethereum (ETH)
The value proposition for Ethereum is that it allows for complex, trustless settlement systems to be built on it. This is a huge deal because the scope of applications is wide and although the technology needs to mature (to support greater transaction volume, frequency and more secure functionality) the sheer amount of fiat such a platform could attract through conversion of traditional centralised settlement and contract services to more secure decentralised platforms is very huge.
...
Shadowcash (SDC)
The value proposition is a double escrow, fully anonymous, decentralised privacy platform which incorporates private chat, private marketplace and secure, trustless private settlement system into one platform that is fully integrated into it's own blockchain.
Shadowcash already has multiple features that make it an excellent store of value: Low coin supply, potential for great demand, near instantaneous transaction verification times, ability to earn interest for simply holding it.
Shadowcash is incredibly easy to use and is heavily focused on usability. This is absolutely essential to it's end users: customers who seek convenient easy and speedy secure anonymous transaction. This will be a dream come true for traditional users of darknet markets.
To explain why lets elaborate on traditional darknet markets where in order to transact anonymously you have to:
1. Download the TOR browser. 2. Learn how to use it. 3. Buy XMR or Bitcoin. 4. Learn how to transact with these coins *safely* (yes this is still an issue with XMR in spite of it's built in privacy). 5. Learn how to and where to find reliable secure darknet markets. 6. Create accounts on these markets to access them *and* 7. Have faith that the websites and the highly centralised (and thus much more vulnerable) servers hosting those markets you use will not get shut down, not disappear with your money and not betray your transaction details and potentially identities to the authorities should they be infiltrated by them. 
Whereas with Shadowcash's market place this process will become:
1. Download the Shadowcash Umbra client (https://shadowproject.io/en/gettingstarted) 2. Buy some SDC on an exchange and transfer it to your Umbra client. 3. Browse the Shadowcash marketplace and transact securely, safely and anonymously. 
In summary I think Shadowcash can be a very useful application as a privacy platform for private communications and transactions.
...
ICONOMI (ICN)
Those two points constitute it's value proposition. By nature of the way it works it has an easily identifiable P/E ratio based on the amount used to create the fund ($10.5 million) against the current value of that fund based on it's
...
Summary lessons
The first rule in investing or trading in a given cryptocoin is deciding if it has a value proposition:
1. *Can it draw fiat currency (USD, Euro, Yuan etc) in such a way as to give it a valuation that is fully independent of pure speculation?* 2. *Is it unique?* 3. *Is it rare?* A limited supply with a low or negative inflation rate will lead to increasing price as demand goes up. 4. Are there significant risks associated with the value proposition? 
In the next article I will cover lesson 3b: Price metrics and valuations. It will be much shorter I promise but equally informative and we will cover topics such as price determination, impact of speculation, price manipulation, whales and their impact and the impact of bitcoin on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Finally just to really hammer it home; why am I posting this on the Shadowcash subreddit?
It is because Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017.
...
References:
1. Crypto-Currency Market Capitalizations, https://coinmarketcap.com/, Last Checked 30/01/2017 2. What is the value of all the Gold in the world? http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp, Last Checked 30/01/2017. 3. ICONOMI Cryptocurrencies Index (ICNX) 21 December 2016 Rebalancing, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-21-december-2016-rebalancing-transformation-into-iconomi-8e31e48493ab#.sptgljv1c 4. ICNx trend chart, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-30-november-2016-monthly-rebalancing-update-3402866243d9#.kw7g4fqcd, Last updated 30th Nov 2017 5. Shadowcash (SDC) - The billion dollar baby!, https://medium.com/@paradox_/shadowcash-sdc-the-billion-dollar-baby-6b86f0660739#.ypz9yme5a, Last updated 16 August 2016. 
...
Disclaimer: I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
submitted by joskye to Shadowcash [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed
You know the scenario...
Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.
You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.
Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.
One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:
For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)
A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:
  1. Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
  2. Get historical daily bitcoin prices
  3. Calculate daily returns
  4. Name the daily return range
  5. Summary statistics
  6. Simulate a year
  7. Simulate a year many times
  8. Multi-year summary statistics
  9. Quick analysis of results

STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:
The GBM is technically a Markov process, which is a fancy way of saying "A random process whose future probabilities are determined by its most recent values." Said another way, past price information is already incorporated and the next price movement is "conditionally independent" of past price movements.
Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.
The formula for GBM is as follows:
gBm formula
Where:
This formula can be broken down into two very important terms: "drift" and "shock".
For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

The ELI5 version: The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.
But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.
Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.
Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.
Zeus Striking Down the Price
And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.
For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.
Columns Setup OHLCV
Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:
=LN(C2/B2) 
Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire Returns column
Calculate Daily Returns

STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called returns, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range returns:
Name the range returns

STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:
In K1, enter:
=C2 
and name it close.
In K2, enter:
=STDEV(returns) 
and name it dailyVolatility
In K3, enter:
=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365) 
and name it annualVolatility
In K4, enter:
=AVERAGE(returns) 
and name it dailyDrift
In K5, enter:
=dailyDrift*365 
and name it annualDrift
In K6, enter:
=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2 
and name it meanDrift
Create Summary Statistics Table

STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:
=J12+1 
Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377
Time

Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.
Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.
In K13, put the formula:
=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1) 
Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole Normdist column:
Normdist

Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.
In L13, put the formula:
=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13 
Copy the formula all the way down to L377:
Log Return

Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.
In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:
=M12*EXP(L13) 
Copy the formula all the way down to M377:
Simulated Price

Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.
Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:
Simulated Price for One Year
We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.
Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.
In B3, put the formula:
=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1)) 
Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":
Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:
=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5 
Multiyear Summary Statistics

STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:
Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129 
How to read: We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.
Wait really? Should I buy? No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.
Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!
Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.
With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.
Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3a - The value proposition

Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and holder.
...
 
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
 
 
In part 3 I will now discuss Cryptocurrency valuations, price metrics and identifying coins of value, worth holding:
 
...
 
What makes a coin worth holding: The value proposition
 
What makes anything worth holding? How much of themselves is a person willing to put into it - that's how much.
Cryptocurrency is largely driven by faith. It is a speculative enterprise i.e. people mostly put money into cryptocurrencies believing they will go up in value in the future; their plan to sell at a higher price when it does.
Currently most cryptocurrencies serve no function than being currencies in themselves. Unfortunately these currencies are largely not recognised by governments, most institutional investors or companies are legitimate stores of value or legitimate currencies of transaction. As such legislation and rules around the world regarding them vary considerably and are often absent.
There are very few cryptocurrencies that have legitimised backing, are insured or supported by enterprises that are insured for their loss and essentially there is little to protect you if you lose money through them.
 
So why do people bother putting money into cryptocurrencies it in the first place?
 
 
If the present and future value of a cryptocurrency is driven purely by speculation then you are essentially gambling by putting your money to buy that coin and joining the pool of other gamblers who are doing so. You are essentially joining a ponzi scheme and waiting game hoping you've gotten in early enough and convinced enough people to buy more of the asset you hold at slightly higher prices until a price is reached that you can cash out at (or until that thing becomes so big that everyone starts using it as their store of value).
 
This type of dynamic essentially underpins the mentality of most investments and trades i.e. buy low and sell high. I'd like to add buy early for investors since buying during a low in an already established asset may be setting yourself up for being forced to sell at a lower low later (especially if you don't understand the fundamentals of that asset).
 
If however the present or future value of a cryptocurrency is driven by some service other than speculation which can attract and drive fiat currency into it's ecosystem then it is potentially valuable.
 
I.e. will people actually use their USD/Yuan/Euro/GBP/Yen/INR etc to actually purchase the coin in question to do something useful with it (other than gamble on it's future price).
 
There are some cryptocurrencies which satisfy this criteria:
 
...
 
Bitcoin
It is not a currency, it is a remittance system and store of value. It has a reputation increasingly to being seen as a digital version of gold.
 
 
 
 
 
Bitcoin has the cultural and historical advantage of being the first cryptocurrency. It is also still the largest cryptocurrency by a long way with the largest marketcap i.e. price per bitcoin [$952 as of writing] x the number of bitcoin in circulation [16,074,687] which is $15.3 billion. Compare to it's next biggest competitor Ethereum which has a marketcap of $700 million (i.e. only 4.57% of Bitcoin's).
 
 
 
 
Bitcoin's value proposition is that it is a store of value. It may not be able to sustain this without significant upgrades to it's underlying software.
 
...
 
Monero (XMR)
Bitcoin does not have anonymity inherently built into it's software. Therefore if you buy and sell Bitcoin especially on cryptocurrency exchanges (where user registration is required), it is possible to trace whom Bitcoin is being transferred from and to.
 
 
For this reason I see Monero as Bitcoin + anonymity. I.e. it's value proposition is as store of hidden wealth. I also believe it does not have the issues that bitcoin does namely, same level of mainstream recognition, spotlight of regulatory awareness and developers do seem to be more focused on achieving better scalability and transaction times (it already does 10-20 minute verification time vs bitcoins 1 hour) which gives it better potential as a currency presently compared to Bitcoin.
 
 
I do believe fiat stored in Bitcoin will gradually transfer into Monero boosting it's value. I am not sure Monero though can presently bring fresh fiat currency (USD, Yuan etc) into it's ecosystem beyond outsider speculation in future price.
 
 
It is not unique in it's function or potential value proposition. My warning about holding Monero for the long term is that it has competition for it's function not just from Bitcoin itself but from other anonymous coins such as Zcash, DASH (which provides instantaneous settlement) and SDC. Perhaps more importantly, Ethereum (ETH) is now planning to implement optional anonymity (via zSNARKs) in it's transaction network; if it does when combined with Ethereum's own functionality and well defined development roadmap (that will likely several second verification times in late 2017) would render XMR potentially redundant.
 
...
Ethereum (ETH)
The first cryptocurrency which was built with the specific intent of incorporating 'smart contracts' into it's platform.
 
 
The value proposition for Ethereum is that it allows for complex, trustless settlement systems to be built on it. This is a huge deal because the scope of applications is wide and although the technology needs to mature (to support greater transaction volume, frequency and more secure functionality) the sheer amount of fiat such a platform could attract through conversion of traditional centralised settlement and contract services to more secure decentralised platforms is very huge.
 
 
...
 
PARTICL (PART) (formerly Shadowcash SDC)
The value proposition is a double escrow, fully anonymous, decentralised privacy platform which incorporates private chat, private marketplace and secure, trustless private settlement system into one platform that is fully integrated into it's own blockchain.
 
 
Particl has multiple features that make it an excellent store of value: Low coin supply, potential for great demand, near instantaneous transaction verification times, ability to earn interest for simply holding it.
 
Particl is incredibly easy to use and is heavily focused on usability. This is absolutely essential to it's end users: customers who seek convenient easy and speedy secure anonymous transaction. This will be a dream come true for traditional users of darknet markets.
 
To explain why lets elaborate on traditional darknet markets where in order to transact anonymously you have to:
1. Download the TOR browser. 2. Learn how to use it. 3. Buy XMR or Bitcoin. 4. Learn how to transact with these coins *safely* (yes this is still an issue with XMR in spite of it's built in privacy). 5. Learn how to and where to find reliable secure darknet markets. 6. Create accounts on these markets to access them *and* 7. Have faith that the websites and the highly centralised (and thus much more vulnerable) servers hosting those markets you use will not get shut down, not disappear with your money and not betray your transaction details and potentially identities to the authorities should they be infiltrated by them. 
Whereas with Particl's market place this process will become:
1. Download the Particl client. 2. Buy some PART on an exchange and transfer it to your Umbra client. 3. Browse the Particl marketplace and transact securely, safely and anonymously. 
 
 
In summary I think Particl can be a very useful application as a privacy platform for private communications and transactions.
 
...
 
ICONOMI (ICN)
Those two points constitute it's value proposition. By nature of the way it works it has an easily identifiable P/E ratio based on the amount used to create the fund ($10.5 million) against the current value of that fund based on it's
 
...
 
Summary lessons
 
The first rule in investing or trading in a given cryptocoin is deciding if it has a value proposition:
 
1. *Can it draw fiat currency (USD, Euro, Yuan etc) in such a way as to give it a valuation that is fully independent of pure speculation?* 2. *Is it unique?* 3. *Is it rare?* A limited supply with a low or negative inflation rate will lead to increasing price as demand goes up. 4. Are there significant risks associated with the value proposition? 
 
 
In the next article I will cover lesson 3b: Price metrics and valuations. It will be much shorter I promise but equally informative and we will cover topics such as price determination, impact of speculation, price manipulation, whales and their impact and the impact of bitcoin on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem!
...
 
References:
1. Crypto-Currency Market Capitalizations, https://coinmarketcap.com/, Last Checked 30/01/2017 2. What is the value of all the Gold in the world? http://onlygold.com/Info/All-The-Gold-In-The-World.asp, Last Checked 30/01/2017. 3. ICONOMI Cryptocurrencies Index (ICNX) 21 December 2016 Rebalancing, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-21-december-2016-rebalancing-transformation-into-iconomi-8e31e48493ab#.sptgljv1c 4. ICNx trend chart, https://medium.com/iconominet/iconomi-cryptocurrencies-index-icnx-30-november-2016-monthly-rebalancing-update-3402866243d9#.kw7g4fqcd, Last updated 30th Nov 2017 5. Shadowcash (SDC) - The billion dollar baby!, https://medium.com/@paradox_/shadowcash-sdc-the-billion-dollar-baby-6b86f0660739#.ypz9yme5a, Last updated 16 August 2016. 
...
 
Further articles in this series:
 
"The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency"
 
Part 0 -
Part 1 -
Part 2 -
Part 3a -
Part 3b -
Part 4 -
Part 5 -
Part 6 -
Part 7a -
 
"The intelligent investors guide to Particl -"
 
 
Full disclosure/Disclaimer: At time of original writing I had long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), Iconomi (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD). All the opinions expressed are my own. I cannot guarantee gains; losses are sustainable; do your own financial research and make your decisions responsibly. All prices and values given are as of time of first writing (Midday 30th-Dec-2016).
 
Second disclaimer: Please do not buy Shadowcash (SDC), the project has been abandoned by it's developers who have moved on to the Particl Project (PART) (www.particl.io). The PARTICL crowd fund and SDC 1:1 token swap completed April 15th. You can still exchange SDC for PART but only if it was acquired prior to 15th April 2017 see: https://particl.news/a-community-driven-initiative-e26724100c3a for more information.
 
Addendum: Article updated 23-11-2017 to edit references to SDC (changed to Particl where relevant to reflect updated status) and clean up formatting.
submitted by joskye to Particl [link] [comments]

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If the price of Bitcoin drops, but there’s minimal volume, that could tell us only a small amount of people back the trend. Let’s go into more detail on the ramifications. Volume is arguably the most important metric for a cryptocurrency, because of the amount of ways it can be broken down. From volume, you can infer the direction and movements of a coin. It’s an essential metric for ... The fast moving nature of the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem leads many investors to seek out automated solutions. There are currently in excess of 1,200 different cryptocurrencies dominating the crypto market, with new tokens being launched in initial coin offerings every day.. Day trading or exploiting arbitrage in this fast-paced market can be likened to juggling cobras. Bitcoin Cash quick stats; Algorithmic score : 4.0/5 (#16) Market cap $4,082,474,750: Mkt. Cap. Rank 6 24h volume $2,378,531,378 Circulating supply: 18,512,494 Total supply: 18,512,494 30 days volatility 22.68% 7 days volatility : 10.96% Bitcoin Cash Price; BCH/USD price $220.53 BCH/BTC price 0.02196223 BCH/ETH price 0.69879531 Bitcoin Cash ... Creating custom formulas can put price action into different perspectives. You can think of the search bar on TradingView like a calculator. This chart, for example, shows AAPL/VIX, but we could have expressed many different formulas including: (AAPL + GOOGL + AMZN + FB)^4 or TSLA + F + GM and even GLD/BTCUSD. There are countless ways to create equations on TradingView. Der Bitcoin - Euro Chart zeigt die Entwicklung des Bitcoin - Euro in grafischer Form und erlaubt somit einen schnellen Überblick über Kursverlauf, Höchst- und Tiefststände.

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bitcoin live chart , live trading , price analysis, Volume ...

Bitcoin Live Btc Price Chart Liquidation Watch Bull vs Bear Pump or Dump Bitcoin Currency Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized digital curr... This video showcases the second level to using the Volume Profile. In this video - the Volume Profile is used to identify price breakout areas before they occur: so that a trader can be trading ... Bitcoin surpasses a January 2018 trading volume all time high on Binance and the Bitcoin weekly chart puts in one of the most bullish btc indicators on bitcoin charts. Bitcoin Live Btc Price Chart Liquidation Watch Bull vs Bear Pump or Dump Bitcoin Currency Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single ... NO WAY!!! THIS IS THE MOST BULLISH BITRIGH NOW AND IT CONFICORMS AT BULN LRUN!!! 402 FREE on our Trusted Exchanges! 🔶 Bybit: https://bit.ly/MMCryptoBybit ($9...

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